As President Trump marks his 100 th day in office tomorrow, we thought it would be a good time to take stock of where the markets, economy and headlines are.
2017 is clearly off to a great start for the markets. So far, U.S. markets are up over 6% and non-U.S. markets are up over 8%. We believe that much of this movement is simply a catch up to the economic improvement in the second half of 2016. This better economic data had generally been underappreciated and underpriced by equity markets. The election, in and of itself, simply provided the resolution of some uncertainty that gave the markets an opportunity to focus on the better economic conditions at hand.
Currently, we believe the markets are pricing in the expectation of additional economic growth. This expectation is predicated on a combination of diminished regulatory burdens on the private sector; lower personal and corporate tax rates; and fiscal stimulus in the form of infrastructure spending. Unfortunately, these pro-growth policies have been delayed by political wrangling. We are optimistic that these policies will take effect in the near term, but any further delays in implementation could splash some cold water on the markets.
Despite this political uncertainty, the greater trend towards optimism cannot be ignored. Consumer and business confidence numbers are both at levels not seen for well over a decade. Of course, optimism can be fickle particularly if headline events like North Korea take a disastrous turn. Absent that type of event (which is always a risk in today’s world), we continue to expect that this optimism will lead to tangible effects like greater spending by households and greater hiring by corporations.
Here at the office, another tax season has come and gone. If we have not yet visited with you personally in 2017, now is a perfect time to come in to the office for a general conversation. In other news, Nelson Financial Planning was recently ranked by AdvisoryHQ News as a top-rated financial advisory firm in Orlando, FL. We have attached their review to this email for your reference and to share with your friends.
We are getting ready for our upcoming client appreciation event at Enzo’s on your choice of May 11 or May 16. We thank you for your timely response and selection of food and dates. We are very excited that the response to this event has been so strong. Both dates are currently on a wait list due to venue size restrictions so please let us know if your plans change.
As always, for our latest thoughts, tune in to our weekly radio show “Dollars and Sense” at 9AM on Sunday at 540 AM/102.5 FM. The show is also available the following day on our website www.NelsonFinancialPlanning.
com or on Facebook or Twitter under Nelson Financial Planning and Linked In under Joel Garris.
Look forward to seeing you on either May 11 or May 16!
From Brexit to Trump, 2016 produced unexpected results that made it a particularly difficult year to navigate. While our returns were positive for the year with overall results up about 7-8%, market performance particularly the Dow made headlines moving to the 20,000 level. Unfortunately, this performance was driven by a handful of companies which undermined our diversified approach in the short term.
These concentrated results occurred in a handful of financial, healthcare and energy companies who saw their fortunes reverse dramatically on election night in anticipation of a looser regulatory environment under Trump. The broader markets in 2016 saw minimal earnings and revenue growth (0.1% and 2.2 % respectively) for businesses. Diversification – just like being consistent on your holdings – is a strategy that works well over time to reduce overall portfolio risk. While providing consistent returns, it is not 100% perfect all the time.
It has been a while since we have seen this type of phenomena – 17 years in fact. In 1999, a handful of tech companies drove the market to new highs only to fall back to earth in 2000 and 2001. While I don’t believe we are in a 1999 scenario these days, there are certainly some parallels. Regardless, don’t be alarmed by your quarterly statement that you will get next week that will show minimal growth for the quarter. In addition, the international and bond portion of your allocations also worked to undermine the domestic performance. The silver lining there is that your investment allocations are lighter on those asset classes these days. Overall, the year was decent in terms of results and that’s our overall investment goal.
Looking ahead to 2017, the consumer appears to be less pessimistic than in prior years based on the past few months of consumer confidence data. This is crucially important for broad economic and market growth as consumer spending accounts for 70% of our economy. In fact, corporate earnings are expected to grow by 12% for 2017 with top line revenue growth of 6%. Meanwhile the average consumer has less debt, more cash and has finally started to experience real wage growth (nearly 4% in 2016) for the first time in years. For these reasons, we are particularly positive for the overall market in 2017.
2016 was a busy year at the office. Our main efforts involved a successful rebrand to Nelson Financial Planning along with continued efforts to ensure the cyber security of your information. We also became active on social media so be sure to follow us on Facebook, Twitter or Linked In. These outlets also provide an opportunity for broader dissemination of our weekly radio show “Dollars and Sense.” Hearing it live at 9 AM on Sunday at 102.5FM or 540AM can often conflict with church schedules but now it is always available the next day on our website at www.NelsonFinancialPlanning.
Tax season and our client meetings for 2017 will start very soon. In fact, our first one is coming right up on January 19. This meeting will follow our usual dinner format starting at 5:30 at the Country Club of Orlando, 1601 Country Club Drive, Orlando, FL. Our speaker will be Joe Valencia from the American Funds. Joe’s 2017 Outlook presentation should make for an informative meeting. Please RSVP for you and your guests to this email or to the office at 407-629-6477.