Mid Year Outlook – Let’s hope the back half is less crazy…
As we approach the mid point of year 2020, it seems like we all need to catch our breath from the Covid nightmare. Unfortunately, I am not sure we’ll have that luxury given that this is in fact a Presidential election year (and the unemployment numbers still stink too!).
If you missed our last client conference call a couple of weeks ago, this piece contains a lot of information that Marc Nabi, Portfolio Manager with American Funds, discussed on the call.
In summary, always remember that recoveries last longer and produce much stronger results then downturns. And most importantly, the active management that occurs on a daily basis inside every fund that you own with us will be a key driver of your investment success over time. After any economic downturn there are always winners and losers among companies – business that emerge better positioned than their competitors. Selectivity will be key moving forward and that’s the kind of activity that occurs everyday with the portfolio managers who are making investment decisions inside each fund you own.
Don’t ignore the potential for continued volatility – that is a part of it and the tougher the headlines the more that is a factor. Speaking of volatility, let’s not forget about that Presidential election. There is no discernable difference between parties and market direction. Let’s face it – the economy is far bigger than any one person or one political party. Pay particular attention to the headline events that occurred during each President’s time in office. We often forget these historical headlines that, at the time they are happening, feel like the worst case scenario.
In a week or so you will receive your statements for the second quarter. The good news is that they will look much better than what you saw at the end of the first quarter. At the end of March, the markets were free falling due to the Covid shutdowns and in that first quarter were down about 20%. As of the date of this email, 6/25/2020, markets overall are down about 5% an upward shift of 15% since the end of March. This strong recovery in the second quarter makes the results for the year to date not too bad considering Covid.
As we have mentioned in previous emails, the office is fully open for meetings either by phone, video or in person. Please know that we do adhere to a universal masking policy for in person meetings and try to have those in-person meetings outside if the weather permits. Who knew those oak trees I planted a decade ago would grow to make a shady outdoor meeting space that we would actually use!
We hope you all are well. As always please let us know if we can be of any help and if we haven’t seen you in 2020 yet, we encourage you to contact us to set up a review.